Samuele Ricci
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Samuele Ricci's performance-implied value at EUR 6.7M-28.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.0M-26.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.6M-25.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (1297 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 36
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €18.5M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1297 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1505
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.6M – €25.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 45 pts; changed club; team strength up (+112 Elo); role change DM -> CM; relative output up 65% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -44% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1297 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AC Milan | Serie A | CM | 31 | 1297 | 38% | 1 | 4 | 0.35 | 0.22 | 1505 | 1570 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Torino FC | Serie A | DM | 34 | 2839 | 83% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1506 | 1458 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Torino FC | Serie A | DM | 32 | 2401 | 70% | 1 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 1497 | 1510 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Torino FC | Serie A | DM | 28 | 2073 | 61% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 1454 | 1468 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | FC Empoli | Serie A | DM | 21 | 1533 | 45% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 1466 | 1331 | 0.89 |
| 2021/22 | Torino FC | Serie A | DM | 12 | 724 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1499 | 1423 | 0.89 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 3 | 201 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 2 | 120 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 4 | 344 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 3 | 176 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismaël Bennacer Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €38.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Bryan Cristante Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Kerem Demirbay Bundesliga · 2018 | 25 | €12.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Mahmoud Dahoud Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €18.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Yusuf Yazıcı Ligue 1 · 2020 | 23 | €13.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Jeff Reine-Adélaïde Ligue 1 · 2020 | 22 | €22.5M | €14.0M | fell |
| Aleksey Miranchuk Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Valentino Lazaro Premier League · 2020 | 24 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | Torino | AC Milan | €23.0M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Empoli | Torino | €10.8M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Torino | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 30 Jan 2022 | FC Empoli | Torino | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Empoli U19 | FC Empoli | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Empoli U17 | Empoli U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Empoli FC Youth | Empoli U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.