David Neres
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David Neres's performance-implied value at EUR 6.5M-14.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.2M-23.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.3M-13.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (925 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 0
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €17.1M vs market €23.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -67% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 925 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.58
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1618
- Opponent strength
- 1525
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.3M – €13.0M
Trajectory drivers: role change LW -> RW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -57% (IQR -73% to -31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 925 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | RW | 16 | 925 | 27% | 3 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.40 | 1525 | 1618 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | LW | 28 | 1279 | 37% | 2 | 6 | 0.56 | 0.39 | 1490 | 1660 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LW | 24 | 1127 | 37% | 5 | 8 | 1.04 | 0.44 | 1376 | 1603 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RW | 31 | 1968 | 64% | 6 | 10 | 0.73 | 0.34 | 1362 | 1718 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 15 | 464 | 15% | 3 | 2 | 0.97 | 0.26 | 1267 | 1749 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 25 | 1158 | 38% | 3 | 5 | 0.62 | 0.23 | 1312 | 1722 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 12 | 635 | 28% | 6 | 1 | 0.99 | 0.25 | 1332 | 1680 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 29 | 1884 | 62% | 8 | 10 | 0.86 | 0.31 | 1328 | 1746 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 32 | 2535 | 83% | 14 | 13 | 0.96 | 0.42 | 1312 | 1627 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 8 | 498 | 16% | 3 | 3 | 1.08 | 0.35 | 1323 | 1627 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 6 | 261 | 0 | 1 | 1583 |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | SSC Napoli | 2 | 166 | 3 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 2 | 166 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 6 | 379 | 0 | 1 | 1511 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 3 | 177 | 0 | 0 | 1689 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 9 | 444 | 3 | 1 | 1593 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 3 | 219 | 1 | 4 | 1494 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 203 | 1 | 0 | 1504 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1612 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 457 | 2 | 0 | 1601 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 314 | 1 | 0 | 1681 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 85 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 248 | 0 | 0 | 1484 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1658 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 11 | 852 | 2 | 2 | 1725 |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 383 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 352 | 1 | 2 | 1375 |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 207 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1401 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1567 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1647 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Jovetić Ligue 1 · 2018 | 29 | €14.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Gonçalo Guedes Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Gerard Moreno Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €20.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Dries Mertens Serie A · 2016 | 29 | €16.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Marco Asensio Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Seydou Doumbia Premier Liga · 2016 | 29 | €12.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Mario Gómez Serie A · 2014 | 29 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Lucas Alario Bundesliga · 2021 | 29 | €20.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2024 | Benfica | Napoli | €28.0M | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Shakhtar D. | Benfica | €15.3M | €20.0M |
| 14 Jan 2022 | Ajax | Shakhtar D. | €12.0M | €20.0M |
| 31 Jan 2017 | São Paulo | Ajax | €17.4M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2016 | São Paulo U20 | São Paulo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | São Paulo U17 | São Paulo U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | São Paulo For. | São Paulo U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.