Reece James
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Reece James's performance-implied value at EUR 18.2M-34.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 31.8M-73.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 26.8M-50.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 4
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 92.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €57.9M vs market €60.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1960 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1615
- Opponent strength
- 1625
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €26.8M – €50.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 26 pts; team strength down (-84 Elo); relative output up 73% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -44% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RB | 29 | 1960 | 57% | 2 | 5 | 0.32 | 0.25 | 1625 | 1615 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RB | 19 | 1063 | 31% | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 1610 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RB | 10 | 421 | 12% | 0 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.30 | 1703 | 1629 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RB | 16 | 1244 | 36% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1546 | 1579 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RM | 26 | 1865 | 55% | 5 | 9 | 0.68 | 0.33 | 1540 | 1737 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RM | 32 | 2367 | 69% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1567 | 1735 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RB | 24 | 1513 | 44% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1573 | 1653 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 8 | 564 | 0 | 2 | 1671 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | England | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 8 | 692 | 1 | 1 | 1709 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 6 | 505 | 1 | 0 | 1704 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 3 | 224 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 10 | 566 | 0 | 1 | 1706 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 5 | 342 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 6 | 383 | 1 | 0 | 1746 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 5 | 316 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Chilwell Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €35.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Héctor Bellerín Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €25.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Pervis Estupiñán Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €32.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Thilo Kehrer Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €18.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Timothy Castagne Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €28.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Davinson Sánchez Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €28.0M | €17.0M | fell |
| Yerry Mina Premier League · 2020 | 26 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Kieran Tierney Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €32.0M | €25.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2019 | Chelsea U23 | Chelsea | Unknown | €7.0M |
| 31 May 2019 | Wigan | Chelsea U23 | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Chelsea U23 | Wigan | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Chelsea U18 | Chelsea U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Chelsea Youth | Chelsea U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.