Brian Brobbey

24 yrs · Striker · Netherlands
Sunderland AFC · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 181 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€30.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€23.1M – €44.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€14.0M – €30.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€17.0M – €35.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€30.9M – €7.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€23.1M – €44.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€14.0M – €30.1M
Projected value (24 months)€17.0M – €35.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€30.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Brian Brobbey's performance-implied value at EUR 14.0M-30.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 23.1M-44.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 17.0M-35.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.15x the positional average in the league (1934 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 13

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh83.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.4 years
Acquisition costUnfavorableest. €34.0M vs market €30.0M
Expected appreciationLow-20% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €35.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1934 (56% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.37
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.58
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
84 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1496
Opponent strength
1623
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€17.0M – €35.9M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+297 Elo); relative output up 110% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -48% to -1%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Sunderland AFCPremier LeagueST31193457%710.370.58162314961.30
2024/25Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieST30156551%430.400.29128615050.50
2023/24Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieST30241979%18101.040.58134714390.48
2022/23Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieST32164854%1330.870.39132815930.58
2021/22Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieST1139713%711.810.47140617490.60
2021/22RB LeipzigBundesligaST91244%021.450.50153316631.05
2020/21Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieST121926%311.880.32129517220.56

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26World CupNetherlands315430—
2025/26Fa CupSunderland AFC13400—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam8519231535
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam4128101406
2024/25Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam211200—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam6457201536
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam2135101420
2023/24Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam14510—
2022/23Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam424811—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam5111001791
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam271001629
2022/23Johan Cruijff SchaalAjax Amsterdam117001641
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueRB Leipzig4106011621
2021/22Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam19000—
2021/22Dfb PokalRB Leipzig12200—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam19001625
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam6139311612
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam145001636

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Santi Mina
Laliga · 2020
25€14.5M€15.0Mflat
Allan Saint-Maximin
Premier League · 2021
24€30.0M€32.0Mflat
Loren Morón
Laliga · 2020
27€16.0M€4.0Mfell
Chris Wood
Premier League · 2018
27€18.0M€14.5Mflat
Gerard Deulofeu
Premier League · 2020
26€20.0M€15.0Mfell
Harry Wilson
Premier League · 2020
23€17.5M€17.0Mflat
José Izquierdo
Premier League · 2018
26€14.0M€6.5Mfell
David Brooks
Premier League · 2019
22€30.0M€16.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Sept 2025AjaxSunderland€20.0M€22.0M
22 Jul 2022LeipzigAjax€16.4M€9.0M
30 Jun 2022AjaxLeipzigFree / loan€9.0M
1 Jan 2022LeipzigAjaxFree / loan€7.5M
1 Jul 2021Ajax U21LeipzigFree / loan€7.5M
1 Jul 2019Ajax U19Ajax U21Unknown€1.0M
1 Jul 2018Ajax U17Ajax U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Ajax YouthAjax U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010AFC YouthAjax YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.