Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall's performance-implied value at EUR 18.7M-46.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.8M-40.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.6M-41.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.26x the positional average in the league (2638 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 94.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €29.6M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2638 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.48
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.51
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1556
- Opponent strength
- 1600
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €19.6M – €41.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -61% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Everton FC | Premier League | AM | 31 | 2638 | 77% | 8 | 6 | 0.48 | 0.51 | 1600 | 1556 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CM | 13 | 258 | 8% | 0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.18 | 1525 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Leicester City | Premier League | CM | 31 | 2316 | 68% | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 1585 | 1498 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Leicester City | Premier League | CM | 28 | 2105 | 62% | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 1569 | 1582 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Chelsea FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1462 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Leicester City | 4 | 191 | 1 | 0 | 1555 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Community Shield | Leicester City | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1864 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Luton Town | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eberechi Eze Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €40.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Rafinha Laliga · 2020 | 27 | €9.5M | €9.0M | flat |
| Davy Klaassen Bundesliga · 2019 | 26 | €22.0M | €17.0M | fell |
| Marc Roca Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Philippe Coutinho Premier League · 2022 | 30 | €20.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Will Hughes Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €18.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Asier Illarramendi Laliga · 2016 | 26 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Tobias Strobl Bundesliga · 2019 | 29 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2025 | Chelsea | Everton | €28.6M | €20.0M |
| 2 Jul 2024 | Leicester | Chelsea | €35.4M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Leicester U23 | Leicester | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 31 May 2021 | Luton | Leicester U23 | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 16 Oct 2020 | Leicester U23 | Luton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2020 | Blackpool | Leicester U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 27 Jan 2020 | Leicester U23 | Blackpool | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Leicester U18 | Leicester U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.