Sven Mijnans

26 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also CM, RM) · Netherlands
AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 190 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2031
Market value
€15.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€8.7M – €16.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.0M – €8.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€6.1M – €17.6M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€14.6M – -€424k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€8.7M – €16.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.0M – €8.3M
Projected value (24 months)€6.1M – €17.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€15.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Sven Mijnans's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-8.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.7M-16.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.1M-17.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (2351 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 27

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average63.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €12.1M vs market €15.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-33% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €15.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2351 (77% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.65
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.40
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
63 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1393
Opponent strength
1306
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€6.1M – €17.6M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-73 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -2% (IQR -29% to +14%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
53 (MID)
Relative output kept
76%–148%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26AZ AlkmaarEredivisieAM30235177%1160.650.40130613930.43
2024/25AZ AlkmaarEredivisieAM28223473%650.440.31129114660.50
2023/24AZ AlkmaarEredivisieCM30238078%450.340.20133014410.48
2022/23Sparta RotterdamEredivisieAM19148348%350.490.48134513940.58
2022/23AZ AlkmaarEredivisieAM15116638%430.540.33134515300.58
2021/22Sparta RotterdamEredivisieRM30189462%330.290.35135512950.60
2020/21Sparta RotterdamEredivisieRM31167255%230.270.34135613200.56

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar434830—
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar5328131343
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueAZ Alkmaar10747411569
2024/25Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar439010—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar4365101280
2023/24Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar14500—
2022/23Knvb BekerSparta Rotterdam213500—
2022/23Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar110000—
2021/22Knvb BekerSparta Rotterdam211800—
2020/21Knvb BekerSparta Rotterdam18001—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ivan Oblyakov
Premier Liga · 2024
26€9.0M€10.0Mflat
Gedson Fernandes
Super Lig · 2024
25€15.0M€16.0Mflat
İrfan Can Kahveci
Super Lig · 2020
25€7.0M€8.5Mrose
Wendel
Premier Liga · 2024
27€20.0M€15.0Mfell
Bryan Heynen
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
25€6.5M€10.0Mrose
Alexandru Cicâldău
Super Lig · 2022
25€7.5M€3.0Mfell
Vadis Odjidja-Ofoe
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
25€5.0M€4.5Mflat
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
Premier Liga · 2024
27€5.0M€3.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
31 Jan 2023Sparta R.AZ Alkmaar€2.5M€1.0M
1 Jul 2020Sparta U21Sparta R.UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Spijkenisse U19Sparta U21Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2016ADO YouthSpijkenisse U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Spijkenis Yth.ADO YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.