
Sven Mijnans
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sven Mijnans's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-8.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.7M-16.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.1M-17.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (2351 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 27
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €12.1M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2351 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.65
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1306
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.1M – €17.6M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-73 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -2% (IQR -29% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | AM | 30 | 2351 | 77% | 11 | 6 | 0.65 | 0.40 | 1306 | 1393 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | AM | 28 | 2234 | 73% | 6 | 5 | 0.44 | 0.31 | 1291 | 1466 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CM | 30 | 2380 | 78% | 4 | 5 | 0.34 | 0.20 | 1330 | 1441 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 19 | 1483 | 48% | 3 | 5 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 1345 | 1394 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | AM | 15 | 1166 | 38% | 4 | 3 | 0.54 | 0.33 | 1345 | 1530 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RM | 30 | 1894 | 62% | 3 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 1355 | 1295 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RM | 31 | 1672 | 55% | 2 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.34 | 1356 | 1320 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 348 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 328 | 1 | 3 | 1343 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 747 | 4 | 1 | 1569 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 390 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 365 | 1 | 0 | 1280 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 118 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 80 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Oblyakov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €9.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Gedson Fernandes Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €15.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| İrfan Can Kahveci Super Lig · 2020 | 25 | €7.0M | €8.5M | rose |
| Wendel Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Bryan Heynen Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €6.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Alexandru Cicâldău Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €7.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Vadis Odjidja-Ofoe Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 25 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Oleksandr Pikhalyonok Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2023 | Sparta R. | AZ Alkmaar | €2.5M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sparta U21 | Sparta R. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Spijkenisse U19 | Sparta U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | ADO Youth | Spijkenisse U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Spijkenis Yth. | ADO Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.