Thomas Gundelund
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thomas Gundelund's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €426k vs market €750k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1525 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1098
- Opponent strength
- 1274
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €487k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 36 pts; league level up (+45 Elo); relative output down 24% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +17% (IQR -5% to +50%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1525 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | RB | 19 | 1525 | 77% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 1274 | 1098 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | RB | 12 | 810 | 41% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 1323 | 1083 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | RM | 10 | 685 | 35% | 0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 1276 | 1174 | 0.48 |
| 2021/22 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | RB | 5 | 284 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1257 | 1145 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | RB | 8 | 475 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1292 | 1155 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 3 | 193 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 2 | 102 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 2 | 105 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zvonimir Sarlija Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €875k | €1.2M | rose |
| Sasa Balic Premier Liga · 2015 | 25 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Marco Tol Eredivisie · 2023 | 25 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Nikita Kakkoev Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Manolis Saliakas Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €500k | €1.5M | rose |
| Tomás Silva Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Dimitrios Stavropoulos Super League 1 · 2020 | 23 | €400k | €700k | rose |
| Noë Dussenne Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 23 | €700k | €1.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2018 | Vejle BK U19 | Vejle BK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Vejle BK Youth | Vejle BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Skive IK U19 | Vejle BK Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.