Elijah Just
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Elijah Just's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.39x the positional average in the league (2294 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 33th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €837k vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2294 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.59
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.56
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 33 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1214
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €3.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -27% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 30 | 2294 | 77% | 7 | 8 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 1214 | 1245 | 0.31 |
| 2022/23 | AC Horsens | Superliga | RW | 17 | 591 | 30% | 0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.49 | 1310 | 1157 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | New Zealand | 3 | 265 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 2 | 102 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | AC Horsens | 3 | 211 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oleksiy Gutsulyak Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €2.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Haris Hajradinovic Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €3.2M | €2.5M | fell |
| Hamidou Traore Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Dimitrios Kourbelis Super League 1 · 2019 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
| Iver Fossum Superliga · 2021 | 25 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Artem Kozak Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Danny Armstrong Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Talles Brener Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €600k | €450k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2025 | AC Horsens | Motherwell FC | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | SKN St. Pölten | AC Horsens | Free / loan | €300k |
| 21 Aug 2024 | AC Horsens | SKN St. Pölten | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Aug 2022 | FC Helsingør | AC Horsens | €100k | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Eastern Suburbs | FC Helsingør | Free / loan | €300k |
| 10 Sept 2018 | PEC Zwolle U19 | Eastern Suburbs | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 22 Jan 2018 | Wellington Yth. | PEC Zwolle U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.