Lilian Brassier
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lilian Brassier's performance-implied value at EUR 4.8M-15.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.5M-14.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.1M-13.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 27
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €11.2M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2252 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1460
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.1M – €13.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 46% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -40% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CB | 27 | 2252 | 74% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1460 | 1520 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CB | 14 | 1236 | 40% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 1444 | 1450 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 12 | 780 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1463 | 1557 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CB | 30 | 2679 | 88% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1479 | 1504 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CB | 36 | 3093 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1445 | 1399 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CB | 31 | 2257 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1426 | 1369 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CB | 11 | 963 | 28% | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 1390 | 1306 | 0.75 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Djiku Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Mathieu Debuchy Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €11.5M | €13.0M | flat |
| Stefan Radu Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Jordan Amavi Ligue 1 · 2020 | 26 | €9.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Cristian Ansaldi Premier Liga · 2013 | 27 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Stefan Posch Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Hamari Traoré Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €6.0M | €4.8M | fell |
| Leandro Castán Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €6.5M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Stade Brestois | Stade Rennais | €12.0M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Stade Rennais | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 31 Jan 2025 | Stade Brestois | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jan 2025 | Marseille | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 3 Jul 2024 | Stade Brestois | Marseille | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Stade Rennais | Stade Brestois | €1.8M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Stade Brestois | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Stade Rennais | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Rennes B | Stade Rennais | Unknown | €625k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Valenciennes FC | Rennes B | Free / loan | €625k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Rennes B | Valenciennes FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Rennes U17 | Rennes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Rennes Jugend | Rennes U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Argenteuil Jgd | Rennes Jugend | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.