
Anouar Ait El Hadj
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Anouar Ait El Hadj's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-13.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-7.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-7.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.35x the positional average in the league (1963 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.3M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1963 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1374
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €7.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 33 pts; relative output down 44% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -80% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 28 | 1963 | 73% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 1374 | 1570 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 19 | 1083 | 40% | 3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 1327 | 1545 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 9 | 281 | 10% | 2 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.36 | 1342 | 1459 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 9 | 117 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1308 | 1495 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 3 | 95 | 3% | 1 | 0 | 0.95 | 0.29 | 1239 | 1432 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 23 | 858 | 28% | 2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.25 | 1332 | 1459 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 22 | 1410 | 46% | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 1337 | 1457 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 2 | 27 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1240 | 1443 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Union Saint-Gilloise | 10 | 693 | 2 | 3 | 1410 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 7 | 528 | 1 | 1 | 1683 |
| 2025/26 | Volkswagen Supercup | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1552 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 7 | 309 | 0 | 1 | 1521 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1601 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1466 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1399 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1323 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 1303 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alper Potuk Super Lig · 2017 | 26 | €5.5M | €850k | fell |
| Anderson Esiti Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
| Denis Terentjev Premier Liga · 2017 | 25 | €2.0M | €750k | fell |
| Tolga Cigerci Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €3.0M | €600k | fell |
| Mathias Kjølø Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €5.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Wilmar Barrios Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €16.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Fred Premier Liga · 2015 | 22 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Hans Hateboer Serie A · 2018 | 24 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul 2024 | Genk | Union SG | €1.5M | €2.5M |
| 18 Jan 2023 | RSC Anderlecht | Genk | €2.0M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Anderlecht U18 | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Anderlecht U17 | Anderlecht U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Anderlecht Yth. | Anderlecht U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | KAA Gent Youth | Anderlecht Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.