Cezary Miszta
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cezary Miszta's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-4.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-7.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 35.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.6M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1890 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1254
- Opponent strength
- 1346
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €7.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +38% (IQR +11% to +61%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 182 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–147%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 73%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | GK | 21 | 1890 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1346 | 1254 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | GK | 26 | 2326 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1333 | 1270 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1643 | 1317 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandr Selikhov Premier Liga · 2017 | 23 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Jean Butez Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 25 | €2.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Ivan Lomaev Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Arnaud Bodart Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €4.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Charles Liga Portugal · 2019 | 25 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Ilya Pomazun Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Zion Suzuki Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 22 | €2.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Maduka Okoye Eredivisie · 2022 | 23 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Legia Warszawa | Rio Ave | €1.0M | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Rio Ave | Legia Warszawa | Free / loan | €400k |
| 29 Jan 2024 | Legia Warszawa | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €400k |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Radomiak | Legia Warszawa | Free / loan | €50k |
| 5 Feb 2020 | Legia Warszawa | Radomiak | Free / loan | €50k |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Z. Sosnowiec | Legia Warszawa | Free / loan | €50k |
| 9 Jul 2019 | Legia Warszawa | Z. Sosnowiec | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Legia II | Legia Warszawa | Unknown | €50k |
| 2 Mar 2018 | Legia U19 | Legia II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Legia Yth. | Legia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.