Koni De Winter
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Koni De Winter's performance-implied value at EUR 8.2M-29.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.0M-31.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.2M-33.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €22.9M vs market €23.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1798 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.2M – €33.3M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+127 Elo); relative output down 49% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +1% (IQR -28% to +41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1798 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 26 | 1798 | 53% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1492 | 1570 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 25 | 2133 | 62% | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1486 | 1444 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 29 | 2380 | 70% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1494 | 1445 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | FC Empoli | Serie A | CB | 14 | 1024 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1517 | 1388 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1647 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 2 | 141 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merih Demiral Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €20.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Igor Zubeldia Laliga · 2022 | 25 | €15.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Aleksandar Dragovic Bundesliga · 2017 | 26 | €12.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Odilon Kossounou Bundesliga · 2023 | 22 | €18.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Isak Hien Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €20.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Wilfried Singo Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €25.0M | €23.0M | flat |
| Pol Lirola Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €8.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Davide Calabria Serie A · 2020 | 24 | €9.5M | €25.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2025 | Genoa | AC Milan | €20.0M | €22.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Juventus | Genoa | €11.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Genoa | Juventus | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 11 Aug 2023 | Juventus | Genoa | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | FC Empoli | Juventus | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 9 Jul 2022 | Juve Next Gen | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Juventus U19 | Juventus U23 | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Juventus U17 | Juventus U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 24 Jul 2018 | Zulte W. Youth | Juventus U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Lierse SK Yth. | Zulte W. Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.