Karim Adeyemi

24 yrs · Right winger (also LW, SS) · Germany
Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga · Foot: left · Height: 180 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€40.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€18.5M – €41.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€13.4M – €50.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€21.0M – €53.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€28.3M – €32.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€18.5M – €41.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€13.4M – €50.8M
Projected value (24 months)€21.0M – €53.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€40.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Karim Adeyemi's performance-implied value at EUR 13.4M-50.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.5M-41.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 21.0M-53.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (1196 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 71

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh86.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €24.7M vs market €40.0M
Expected appreciationLow-25% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €60.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1196 (39% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.83
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.51
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
87 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1656
Opponent strength
1493
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€21.0M – €53.4M

Trajectory drivers: role change RW -> SS.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -51% to +11%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1196 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Borussia DortmundBundesligaSS28119639%740.830.51149316560.94
2024/25Borussia DortmundBundesligaRW25144147%760.810.43148316800.94
2023/24Borussia DortmundBundesligaLW2191130%310.400.24153617161.01
2022/23Borussia DortmundBundesligaRW24139746%660.770.41150816911.04

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund9473321629
2025/26Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund216700—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund10691521630
2024/25Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund16901—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund12709211722
2023/24Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund19000—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund6379201615
2022/23Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund29410—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ferran Torres
Laliga · 2024
24€30.0M€50.0Mrose
Mikel Oyarzabal
Laliga · 2023
26€40.0M€25.0Mfell
João Félix
Laliga · 2024
25€30.0M€28.0Mflat
Ousmane Dembélé
Laliga · 2023
26€60.0M€90.0Mrose
Samuel Chukwueze
Laliga · 2022
23€20.0M€20.0Mflat
Thomas Lemar
Laliga · 2022
27€40.0M€10.0Mfell
Keita Baldé
Ligue 1 · 2018
23€30.0M€16.0Mfell
Mario Balotelli
Serie A · 2013
23€30.0M€11.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022SalzburgDortmund€30.0M€35.0M
31 Dec 2019FC LieferingSalzburgFree / loan€7.5M
2 Jul 2018SalzburgFC LieferingFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2018U'haching U19Salzburg€10.1MData unavailable
1 Jan 2018U'haching U17U'haching U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2017U'haching Yth.U'haching U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Forstenried JgdU'haching Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2011B. München Yth.Forstenried JgdFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Forstenried JgdB. München Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.