Marko Divković

27 yrs · Left-back (also LM, ST) · Croatia
Bröndby IF · Superliga · Foot: left · Height: 181 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2.7M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€940k – €3.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€524k – €1.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.3M – €3.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.8M – €439k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€940k – €3.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€524k – €1.4M
Projected value (24 months)€1.3M – €3.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.7M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Marko Divković's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-3.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 73

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average26.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.1 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.7M vs market €2.7M
Expected appreciationLow-23% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.47
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.7M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1573 (79% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.23
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.15
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
26 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.47 (rank 12)
Team strength (Elo)
1336
Opponent strength
1269
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.3M – €3.3M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts; league level up (+45 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -45% to +11%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1573 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
24 (DEF)
Relative output kept
60%–139%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
71%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Bröndby IFSuperligaLB20157379%310.230.15126913360.47
2024/25Bröndby IFSuperligaLB1774037%120.360.18128713420.38
2023/24Bröndby IFSuperligaLM19144973%250.430.28128314170.48
2022/23Bröndby IFSuperligaST1144823%030.600.47126613290.47
2021/22Bröndby IFSuperligaST1371936%120.380.40123113620.45

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingBröndby IF6436011388
2025/26Oddset PokalenBröndby IF219501—
2024/25Oddset PokalenBröndby IF535221—
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingBröndby IF128001475
2023/24Oddset PokalenBröndby IF430701—
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingBröndby IF4201201481
2022/23Oddset PokalenBröndby IF19000—
2021/22Oddset PokalenBröndby IF317320—
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingDAC Dunajska Streda2155001515
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueBröndby IF236001529

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Kevin Tshiembe
Superliga · 2023
26€2.0M€800kfell
Calvin Verdonk
Eredivisie · 2024
27€2.5M€2.5Mflat
Andreaw Gravillon
Super Lig · 2024
26€3.7M€1.0Mfell
Darko Todorovic
Premier Liga · 2024
27€1.5M€1.5Mflat
Marcelo
Liga Portugal · 2016
27€1.7M€3.0Mrose
Dídac Vilà
Super League 1 · 2016
27€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Joris Kramer
Eredivisie · 2024
28€1.2M€1.8Mrose
Fatih Aksoy
Super Lig · 2022
25€3.8M€2.3Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022Dunajska StredaBröndby IF€1.0M€700k
30 Jun 2022Bröndby IFDunajska StredaFree / loan€700k
31 Aug 2021Dunajska StredaBröndby IFFree / loan€750k
1 Jul 2017Arsenal AcademyDunajska StredaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013NK OtokArsenal AcademyUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.