Matheus Cunha
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matheus Cunha's performance-implied value at EUR 34.5M-67.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 47.0M-87.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 37.4M-73.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (2503 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €71.4M vs market €75.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2503 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.50
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1715
- Opponent strength
- 1583
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €37.4M – €73.2M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+214 Elo); role change AM -> LW; relative output down 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -36% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester United | Premier League | LW | 33 | 2503 | 73% | 10 | 4 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 1583 | 1715 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | AM | 33 | 2603 | 76% | 15 | 6 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 1583 | 1501 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | ST | 32 | 2454 | 72% | 12 | 7 | 0.70 | 0.71 | 1583 | 1467 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | ST | 17 | 972 | 28% | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.41 | 1549 | 1497 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | ST | 11 | 370 | 11% | 0 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.40 | 1507 | 1656 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | ST | 29 | 1052 | 31% | 6 | 6 | 1.03 | 0.60 | 1541 | 1677 | 1.05 |
| 2021/22 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | ST | 1 | 65 | 2% | 0 | 1 | 1.38 | 0.51 | 1400 | 1385 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | LW | 27 | 2152 | 70% | 7 | 5 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 1556 | 1446 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | ST | 11 | 745 | 24% | 5 | 2 | 0.85 | 0.67 | 1523 | 1469 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | ST | 10 | 273 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1541 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | ST | 25 | 848 | 28% | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.29 | 1470 | 1650 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Brazil | 3 | 169 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 210 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 289 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 117 | 0 | 0 | 1588 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 52 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 141 | 0 | 0 | 1744 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 80 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1553 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 2 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1580 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | RB Leipzig | 6 | 540 | 3 | 0 | 1551 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RB Leipzig | 6 | 456 | 3 | 1 | 1355 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 2 | 113 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Premier League · 2019 | 30 | €70.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Alexandre Lacazette Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €70.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Sergio Agüero Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €60.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Sadio Mané Premier League · 2018 | 26 | €70.0M | €120M | rose |
| Lionel Messi Laliga · 2014 | 27 | €120M | €120M | flat |
| Lucas Ocampos Laliga · 2020 | 26 | €32.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Harry Kane Premier League · 2020 | 27 | €120M | €90.0M | fell |
| Alexis Sánchez Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €55.0M | €70.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Wolves | Man Utd | €74.2M | €60.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Atlético | Wolves | €50.0M | €25.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Wolves | Atlético | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Atlético | Wolves | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 25 Aug 2021 | Hertha BSC | Atlético | €35.0M | €30.0M |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Leipzig | Hertha BSC | €18.0M | €13.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Sion | Leipzig | €15.0M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Coritiba U20 | FC Sion | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.