Noah Ganaus
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Noah Ganaus's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.55x the positional average in the league (1753 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.4M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1753 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.72
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.79
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1215
- Opponent strength
- 1267
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €748k – €2.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -7% (IQR -30% to +61%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1753 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | ST | 22 | 1753 | 89% | 10 | 4 | 0.72 | 0.79 | 1267 | 1215 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 5 | 284 | 3 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Linssen Eredivisie · 2015 | 25 | €1.3M | €2.5M | rose |
| Nicolai Vallys Superliga · 2022 | 26 | €1.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Rasmus Falk Superliga · 2016 | 24 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Nikolaos Kaltsas Super League 1 · 2015 | 25 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Ibou Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 27 | €1.7M | €650k | fell |
| Greg Stewart Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 26 | €600k | €550k | flat |
| Pål Alexander Kirkevold Superliga · 2018 | 28 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Issa Kallon Eredivisie · 2022 | 26 | €800k | €750k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | J. Regensburg | Odense BK | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Stuttgart II | J. Regensburg | Free / loan | €175k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | SSV Reutlingen | Stuttgart II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 20 Jan 2020 | Chemnitz U19 | SSV Reutlingen | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | St. Kickers U19 | Chemnitz U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Stuttgart U17 | St. Kickers U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Stuttgart Yth. | Stuttgart U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.