Dani Vivian
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dani Vivian's performance-implied value at EUR 8.1M-24.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.4M-23.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.1M-19.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €19.1M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2563 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1451
- Opponent strength
- 1498
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.1M – €19.4M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-128 Elo); relative output down 50% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -48% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 31 | 2563 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1498 | 1451 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 32 | 2605 | 76% | 4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 1505 | 1578 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 33 | 2879 | 84% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1492 | 1583 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 29 | 2374 | 69% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1504 | 1487 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CB | 24 | 1985 | 58% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1528 | 1551 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 495 | 0 | 0 | 1702 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1800 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 11 | 813 | 0 | 0 | 1544 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 141 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1750 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 7 | 614 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 7 | 570 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 255 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Debuchy Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €11.5M | €13.0M | flat |
| Alexander Djiku Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Danilho Doekhi Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €17.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Nico Elvedi Bundesliga · 2022 | 26 | €18.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Kamil Glik Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €10.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Matija Nastasić Bundesliga · 2019 | 26 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Andrea Ranocchia Serie A · 2014 | 26 | €13.5M | €7.5M | fell |
| Stefan Posch Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2021 | CD Mirandés | Athletic Club | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 12 Aug 2020 | Athletic Club | CD Mirandés | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Bilbao Athletic | Athletic Club | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | CD Basconia | Bilbao Athletic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Santutxu U19 | CD Basconia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.