Danila Khotulev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Danila Khotulev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €930k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1983 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 21 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1218
- Opponent strength
- 1339
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €510k – €1.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 50 pts; relative output down 39% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -41% to +22%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | CB | 24 | 1983 | 73% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1339 | 1218 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | CB | 9 | 638 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1351 | 1202 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | CB | 14 | 1215 | 45% | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 1334 | 1272 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | CB | 14 | 1144 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1311 | 1332 | 0.53 |
| 2020/21 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 4 | 112 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1154 | 1544 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 4 | 236 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 4 | 319 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 2 | 128 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Nascimento Liga Portugal · 2016 | 25 | €700k | €200k | fell |
| Artem Shabanov Premier Liga · 2015 | 23 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Théo Ndicka Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Wilfried Kanon Eredivisie · 2017 | 24 | €1.3M | €2.0M | rose |
| Igor Kyryukhantsev Premier Liga · 2020 | 24 | €475k | €500k | flat |
| Rodrigo Soares Liga Portugal · 2018 | 26 | €900k | €1.0M | flat |
| Dario Van den Buijs Eredivisie · 2019 | 24 | €900k | €600k | fell |
| Andriy Tsurikov Premier Liga · 2016 | 24 | €500k | €800k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jan 2023 | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Orenburg | €435k | €600k |
| 8 Jan 2023 | Orenburg | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Free / loan | €600k |
| 10 Feb 2022 | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Orenburg | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Zenit II | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Zenit U17 | Zenit II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Akron Konoplev | Zenit U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.