Nazariy Muravskyi

26 yrs · Centre-back · Ukraine
LNZ Cherkasy · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 Dec 2027
Market value
€1.2M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€586k – €1.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€537k – €1.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€532k – €1.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€674k – €510k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€586k – €1.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€537k – €1.1M
Projected value (24 months)€532k – €1.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.2M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Nazariy Muravskyi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.

Bargain Index: 83

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average25.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €711k vs market €1.2M
Expected appreciationLow-15% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.2M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2177 (81% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.04
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
26 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1242
Opponent strength
1182
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€532k – €1.8M

Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+132 Elo); relative output up 90% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -10% to +31%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26LNZ CherkasyPremier LigaCB25217781%100.040.05118212420.25
2024/25LNZ CherkasyPremier LigaCB25200574%000.000.02121711100.28
2023/24LNZ CherkasyPremier LigaCB27237088%010.040.06127111790.34
2022/23PFK LvivPremier LigaCB14114042%000.000.03127610290.38
2020/21FK MariupolPremier LigaCB640917%000.000.06130912220.49
2019/20FK MariupolPremier LigaCB21357%000.000.07127612670.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupLNZ Cherkasy212200—
2024/25Ukrainian CupLNZ Cherkasy12900—
2023/24Ukrainian CupLNZ Cherkasy14500—
2020/21Ukrainian CupFK Mariupol216400—
2019/20Ukrainian CupFK Mariupol19010—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jordan
Premier Liga · 2024
25€800k€1.0Mrose
Richard Jensen
Scottish Premiership · 2024
28€750k€750kflat
Lewis Mayo
Scottish Premiership · 2024
24€900k€600kfell
Pepe Castaño
Super League 1 · 2023
25€700k€700kflat
Sergiy Chobotenko
Premier Liga · 2024
27€1.0M€1.5Mrose
David Carmona
Super League 1 · 2023
26€450k€450kflat
Federico Álvarez
Super League 1 · 2023
29€600k€400kfell
Andreas Maxsø
Superliga · 2020
26€1.2M€2.5Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2023PFC LvivLNZ CherkasyFree / loan€350k
30 Jun 2023LNZ CherkasyPFC LvivFree / loan€350k
1 Mar 2023PFC LvivLNZ CherkasyFree / loan€300k
5 Feb 2022Shakhtar IIPFC Lviv€50k€250k
30 Jun 2021FC MariupolShakhtar IIFree / loan€300k
19 Feb 2020Shakhtar IIFC MariupolFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Shakhtar U19Shakhtar IIUnknownData unavailable
11 Jul 2017Shakhtar U17Shakhtar U19UnknownData unavailable
5 Apr 2017DYuSSh-15 KyivShakhtar U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.