
Nazariy Muravskyi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nazariy Muravskyi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.
Bargain Index: 83
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €711k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2177 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1242
- Opponent strength
- 1182
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €532k – €1.8M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+132 Elo); relative output up 90% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -10% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | LNZ Cherkasy | Premier Liga | CB | 25 | 2177 | 81% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1182 | 1242 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | LNZ Cherkasy | Premier Liga | CB | 25 | 2005 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1217 | 1110 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | LNZ Cherkasy | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2370 | 88% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1271 | 1179 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | PFK Lviv | Premier Liga | CB | 14 | 1140 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1276 | 1029 | 0.38 |
| 2020/21 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | CB | 6 | 409 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1309 | 1222 | 0.49 |
| 2019/20 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | CB | 2 | 135 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1276 | 1267 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | LNZ Cherkasy | 2 | 122 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | LNZ Cherkasy | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | LNZ Cherkasy | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Mariupol | 2 | 164 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Mariupol | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Richard Jensen Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 28 | €750k | €750k | flat |
| Lewis Mayo Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €900k | €600k | fell |
| Pepe Castaño Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Sergiy Chobotenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| David Carmona Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Federico Álvarez Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Andreas Maxsø Superliga · 2020 | 26 | €1.2M | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | PFC Lviv | LNZ Cherkasy | Free / loan | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | LNZ Cherkasy | PFC Lviv | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Mar 2023 | PFC Lviv | LNZ Cherkasy | Free / loan | €300k |
| 5 Feb 2022 | Shakhtar II | PFC Lviv | €50k | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | FC Mariupol | Shakhtar II | Free / loan | €300k |
| 19 Feb 2020 | Shakhtar II | FC Mariupol | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Shakhtar U19 | Shakhtar II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 11 Jul 2017 | Shakhtar U17 | Shakhtar U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 Apr 2017 | DYuSSh-15 Kyiv | Shakhtar U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.