Rostyslav Lyakh

26 yrs · Left-back (also LM) · Ukraine
Karpaty Lviv · Premier Liga · Foot: both · Height: 178 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€700k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€323k – €781k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€374k – €651k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€319k – €1.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€407k – €328k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€323k – €781k
Model value (performance-implied)€374k – €651k
Projected value (24 months)€319k – €1.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Rostyslav Lyakh's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 85

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average11.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.7 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €412k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationLow-13% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €700k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2504 (93% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.16
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
11 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1124
Opponent strength
1161
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€319k – €1.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 54 pts; team strength down (-75 Elo); relative output up 40% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +53% (IQR -3% to +94%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Rukh LvivPremier LigaLB15127547%110.140.16116110390.25
2025/26Karpaty LvivPremier LigaLB14122946%000.000.06116212130.25
2024/25Rukh LvivPremier LigaLB16105039%000.000.08122011990.28
2023/24Rukh LvivPremier LigaLB1341415%020.430.30132612650.34
2022/23Rukh LvivPremier LigaLB29246591%000.000.05128412180.38
2021/22Rukh LvivPremier LigaLB724216%000.000.11126712350.45
2020/21Rukh LvivPremier LigaLM2301%000.000.55159212310.49
2019/20Karpaty Lviv (-2021)Premier LigaLM1067634%010.130.23132611950.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupRukh Lviv327012—
2024/25Ukrainian CupRukh Lviv12300—
2023/24Ukrainian CupRukh Lviv218000—
2021/22Ukrainian CupRukh Lviv221000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Nazariy Muravskyi
Premier Liga · 2024
24€700k€1.2Mrose
Zvonimir Sarlija
Super Lig · 2021
25€875k€1.2Mrose
Yuriy Kopyna
Premier Liga · 2024
28€600k€400kfell
Stefan Gartenmann
Scottish Premiership · 2024
27€700k€1.5Mrose
Liam Smith
Scottish Premiership · 2023
27€450k€450kflat
Wajdi Kechrida
Super League 1 · 2023
28€800k€700kflat
Manolis Saliakas
Super League 1 · 2021
25€500k€1.5Mrose
Yevgen Pavlyuk
Premier Liga · 2024
22€800k€1.5Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
9 Jan 2026Rukh LvivKarpaty Lviv€300k€600k
1 Jul 2021Rukh Lviv IIRukh LvivUnknown€100k
31 Dec 2020Karpaty GalychRukh Lviv IIFree / loan€200k
6 Oct 2020Rukh Lviv IIKarpaty GalychFree / loan€200k
5 Oct 2020KarpatyRukh Lviv IIFree / loan€200k
1 Jan 2020Karpaty IIKarpaty LvivUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Karpaty U19Karpaty IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017UFK LvivKarpaty U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Rostyslav Lyakh · MoneyballAI