
Jonathan David
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jonathan David's performance-implied value at EUR 16.5M-36.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.8M-38.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.6M-28.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.78x the positional average in the league (1784 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 87.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €28.4M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1784 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.50
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1614
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.6M – €28.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -63% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1784 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Juventus FC | Serie A | ST | 35 | 1784 | 52% | 6 | 4 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 1487 | 1614 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | ST | 32 | 2559 | 84% | 16 | 5 | 0.74 | 0.46 | 1429 | 1594 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | ST | 34 | 2642 | 86% | 19 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.57 | 1457 | 1552 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | ST | 37 | 3179 | 93% | 24 | 4 | 0.79 | 0.57 | 1434 | 1555 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | ST | 38 | 2812 | 82% | 15 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.37 | 1430 | 1540 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | ST | 37 | 2368 | 69% | 13 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.41 | 1423 | 1610 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 27 | 2101 | 80% | 18 | 8 | 1.11 | 0.61 | 1381 | 1518 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 23 | 1337 | 50% | 8 | 4 | 0.81 | 0.56 | 1361 | 1478 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 9 | 397 | 2 | 1 | 1591 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Canada | 3 | 241 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 2 | 148 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 10 | 746 | 7 | 2 | 1663 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 4 | 366 | 2 | 2 | 1597 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 2 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 1518 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 8 | 680 | 3 | 0 | 1672 |
| 2021/22 | Trophee Des Champions | LOSC Lille | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1727 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 8 | 592 | 0 | 2 | 1595 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | KAA Gent | 7 | 620 | 3 | 0 | 1511 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 6 | 539 | 2 | 2 | 1429 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 4 | 76 | 2 | 0 | 1456 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Cuadrado Serie A · 2015 | 27 | €30.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Cenk Tosun Super Lig · 2018 | 27 | €23.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Randal Kolo Muani Ligue 1 · 2024 | 26 | €45.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Tammy Abraham Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €40.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Taty Castellanos Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €15.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Lucas Ocampos Laliga · 2022 | 28 | €25.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Rafa Mir Laliga · 2022 | 25 | €16.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Krzysztof Piatek Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €21.5M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2025 | Lille | Juventus | Free / loan | €45.0M |
| 11 Aug 2020 | KAA Gent | Lille | €27.0M | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | KAA Gent U21 | KAA Gent | Unknown | €100k |
| 23 Jan 2018 | Ottawa ISC | KAA Gent U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.