Jonathan David

26 yrs · Striker (also AM) · Canada
Juventus FC · Serie A · Foot: both · Height: 178 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€30.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€20.8M – €38.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€16.5M – €36.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€10.6M – €28.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€22.0M – €15.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€20.8M – €38.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€16.5M – €36.5M
Projected value (24 months)€10.6M – €28.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€30.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Jonathan David's performance-implied value at EUR 16.5M-36.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.8M-38.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.6M-28.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.78x the positional average in the league (1784 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 6

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh87.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.5 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €28.4M vs market €30.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-42% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €60.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1784 (52% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.50
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.40
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
88 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1614
Opponent strength
1487
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€10.6M – €28.8M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts; changed club.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -63% to -38%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1784 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Juventus FCSerie AST35178452%640.500.40148716140.93
2024/25LOSC LilleLigue 1ST32255984%1650.740.46142915940.88
2023/24LOSC LilleLigue 1ST34264286%1940.780.57145715520.87
2022/23LOSC LilleLigue 1ST37317993%2440.790.57143415550.82
2021/22LOSC LilleLigue 1ST38281282%1500.480.37143015400.86
2020/21LOSC LilleLigue 1ST37236869%1330.610.41142316100.75
2019/20KAA GentJupiler Pro LeagueAM27210180%1881.110.61138115180.63
2018/19KAA GentJupiler Pro LeagueST23133750%840.810.56136114780.65

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC9397211591
2025/26World CupCanada324130—
2025/26Italy CupJuventus FC214800—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille10746721663
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingLOSC Lille4366221597
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingLOSC Lille2210111518
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille8680301672
2021/22Trophee Des ChampionsLOSC Lille176001727
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueLOSC Lille8592021595
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueKAA Gent7620301511
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingKAA Gent6539221429
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingKAA Gent476201456

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Juan Cuadrado
Serie A · 2015
27€30.0M€25.0Mflat
Cenk Tosun
Super Lig · 2018
27€23.0M€12.0Mfell
Randal Kolo Muani
Ligue 1 · 2024
26€45.0M€20.0Mfell
Tammy Abraham
Serie A · 2023
26€40.0M€15.0Mfell
Taty Castellanos
Serie A · 2024
26€15.0M€28.0Mrose
Lucas Ocampos
Laliga · 2022
28€25.0M€9.0Mfell
Rafa Mir
Laliga · 2022
25€16.0M€2.5Mfell
Krzysztof Piatek
Serie A · 2020
25€21.5M€12.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
4 Jul 2025LilleJuventusFree / loan€45.0M
11 Aug 2020KAA GentLille€27.0M€25.0M
1 Jul 2018KAA Gent U21KAA GentUnknown€100k
23 Jan 2018Ottawa ISCKAA Gent U21Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Jonathan David · MoneyballAI