Mikkel Damsgaard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mikkel Damsgaard's performance-implied value at EUR 34.3M-60.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.6M-34.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.7M-34.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (2058 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €26.5M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2058 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1612
- Opponent strength
- 1583
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.7M – €34.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -43% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Brentford FC | Premier League | AM | 33 | 2058 | 60% | 4 | 4 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 1583 | 1612 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Brentford FC | Premier League | AM | 38 | 2930 | 86% | 2 | 11 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 1568 | 1583 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Brentford FC | Premier League | LW | 23 | 836 | 24% | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.33 | 1538 | 1500 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Brentford FC | Premier League | LW | 26 | 979 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1547 | 1623 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | UC Sampdoria | Serie A | LW | 11 | 576 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1570 | 1375 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | UC Sampdoria | Serie A | LW | 35 | 1770 | 52% | 2 | 4 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 1481 | 1440 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | LW | 25 | 2010 | 86% | 9 | 4 | 0.58 | 0.45 | 1283 | 1329 | 0.41 |
| 2018/19 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CM | 23 | 1849 | 79% | 0 | 5 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 1307 | 1323 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | LW | 8 | 628 | 27% | 1 | 3 | 0.57 | 0.43 | 1265 | 1377 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 2 | 177 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 2 | 152 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | UC Sampdoria | 1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | UC Sampdoria | 2 | 39 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Nordsjaelland | 6 | 540 | 0 | 3 | 1368 |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 35 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Paquetá Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €45.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Yves Bissouma Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €35.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Youri Tielemans Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €25.0M | €38.0M | rose |
| Grzegorz Krychowiak Laliga · 2016 | 26 | €30.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Pablo Fornals Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €22.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Juan Mata Premier League · 2014 | 26 | €40.0M | €34.0M | flat |
| Joan Jordán Laliga · 2020 | 26 | €14.5M | €22.0M | rose |
| Ander Iturraspe Laliga · 2015 | 26 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2022 | Sampdoria | Brentford | €15.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Nordsjaelland | Sampdoria | €6.8M | €6.5M |
| 10 Jul 2018 | Nordsjaell. U19 | Nordsjaelland | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FCN Youth | Nordsjaell. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Jyllinge Youth | FCN Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.