Sepp van den Berg
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sepp van den Berg's performance-implied value at EUR 29.7M-47.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 23.3M-47.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 18.6M-40.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €34.4M vs market €32.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2761 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1612
- Opponent strength
- 1598
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €18.6M – €40.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -47% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Brentford FC | Premier League | CB | 32 | 2761 | 81% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1598 | 1612 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Brentford FC | Premier League | CB | 31 | 2588 | 76% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1584 | 1583 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CB | 33 | 2838 | 93% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1521 | 1489 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CB | 9 | 696 | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1571 | 1354 | 1.04 |
| 2018/19 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | CB | 15 | 904 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1351 | 1271 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | CB | 6 | 417 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1299 | 1268 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 2 | 112 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 42 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Preston North End | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Henry Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €28.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Ben Godfrey Premier League · 2021 | 23 | €25.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Sergio Reguilón Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Tyrick Mitchell Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €22.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Joachim Andersen Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €30.0M | €27.0M | flat |
| Aymeric Laporte Laliga · 2017 | 23 | €25.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| José Gayà Laliga · 2019 | 24 | €50.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Michael Keane Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €30.0M | €25.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2024 | Liverpool | Brentford | €23.6M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Mainz | Liverpool | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 13 Jul 2023 | Liverpool | Mainz | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | FC Schalke 04 | Liverpool | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Aug 2022 | Liverpool | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 31 May 2022 | Preston | Liverpool | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Liverpool | Preston | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | PEC Zwolle | Liverpool | €1.9M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | PEC Zwolle U19 | PEC Zwolle | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Oct 2017 | PEC Zwolle U17 | PEC Zwolle U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | PEC Youth | PEC Zwolle U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.