Simon Graves
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Simon Graves's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 62
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €962k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2681 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1186
- Opponent strength
- 1307
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €681k – €1.7M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-79 Elo); relative output up 187% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -31% to +69%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | CB | 32 | 2681 | 88% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1307 | 1186 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | CB | 27 | 2319 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1304 | 1265 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | Randers FC | Superliga | CB | 16 | 1166 | 59% | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.14 | 1315 | 1286 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Randers FC | Superliga | CB | 15 | 1180 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1272 | 1290 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Randers FC | Superliga | CB | 17 | 1386 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1300 | 1278 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | Randers FC | Superliga | CB | 5 | 308 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1309 | 1242 | 0.41 |
| 2018/19 | Randers FC | Superliga | CB | 4 | 112 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1354 | 1225 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 7 | 462 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 2 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burak Öksüz Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €1.1M | €800k | fell |
| Nihad Mujakic Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Julian Lelieveld Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €850k | €400k | fell |
| Mats Köhlert Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Dino Mikanovic Superliga · 2019 | 25 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Mats Deijl Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €1.2M | €2.0M | rose |
| Samet Akaydin Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Pepe Castaño Super League 1 · 2024 | 26 | €800k | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Palermo | PEC Zwolle | €600k | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | PEC Zwolle | Palermo | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 21 Aug 2024 | Palermo | PEC Zwolle | Free / loan | €750k |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Randers FC | Palermo | €1.4M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Randers U19 | Randers FC | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Randers FC Yth. | Randers U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.