Diego Costa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Diego Costa's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-12.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.6M-15.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.4M-16.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 26
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.5M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2377 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1536
- Opponent strength
- 1329
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.4M – €16.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 125% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +37% (IQR -4% to +56%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2377 | 88% | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 1329 | 1536 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | CB | 28 | 2509 | 93% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1297 | 1511 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 8 | 585 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Super Cup | FK Krasnodar | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1478 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 4 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Liga Portugal · 2017 | 28 | €10.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Toby Alderweireld Eredivisie · 2013 | 24 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Douglas Santos Premier Liga · 2020 | 26 | €11.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Marcos Senesi Eredivisie · 2022 | 25 | €17.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Denzel Dumfries Eredivisie · 2021 | 25 | €16.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Sebastián Coates Liga Portugal · 2020 | 30 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Christopher Jullien Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 27 | €5.2M | €4.5M | flat |
| Simon Deli Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 29 | €5.5M | €1.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2024 | São Paulo | Krasnodar | €7.5M | €3.5M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | São Paulo U20 | São Paulo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.