Denzel Dumfries
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Denzel Dumfries's performance-implied value at EUR 9.2M-39.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.6M-25.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.1M-15.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.84x the positional average in the league (1328 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 90.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €17.8M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -63% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1328 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1722
- Opponent strength
- 1516
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.1M – €15.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; team strength down (-96 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -75% to -44%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1328 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Inter Milan | Serie A | RM | 20 | 1328 | 39% | 3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 1516 | 1722 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Inter Milan | Serie A | RM | 29 | 1951 | 57% | 7 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.22 | 1498 | 1819 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Inter Milan | Serie A | RM | 31 | 1643 | 48% | 4 | 5 | 0.49 | 0.23 | 1471 | 1802 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Inter Milan | Serie A | RM | 34 | 2223 | 65% | 1 | 7 | 0.32 | 0.18 | 1450 | 1738 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Inter Milan | Serie A | RM | 33 | 2026 | 59% | 5 | 5 | 0.44 | 0.21 | 1445 | 1731 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RB | 30 | 2468 | 81% | 2 | 6 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 1351 | 1567 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RB | 25 | 2242 | 96% | 7 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.17 | 1363 | 1553 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RB | 34 | 2985 | 98% | 4 | 7 | 0.33 | 0.14 | 1338 | 1634 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | RB | 33 | 2940 | 96% | 3 | 8 | 0.34 | 0.31 | 1324 | 1317 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 31 | 2645 | 86% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 1366 | 1223 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 5 | 342 | 2 | 0 | 1509 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Netherlands | 3 | 270 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 38 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 12 | 973 | 2 | 3 | 1660 |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 2 | 180 | 2 | 0 | 1713 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 93 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 5 | 322 | 0 | 1 | 1646 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 12 | 888 | 1 | 0 | 1693 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 5 | 332 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 7 | 467 | 0 | 1 | 1695 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 269 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1706 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 512 | 1 | 1 | 1536 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 258 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1410 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 540 | 0 | 1 | 1528 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 315 | 1 | 0 | 1439 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1586 |
| 2019/20 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1746 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1731 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1429 |
| 2018/19 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 5 | 480 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabián Ruiz Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €30.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| João Moutinho Ligue 1 · 2017 | 31 | €13.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Bastian Schweinsteiger Bundesliga · 2015 | 31 | €22.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €14.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Matías Vecino Serie A · 2020 | 29 | €18.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Fernando Premier League · 2016 | 29 | €16.0M | €5.8M | fell |
| Emil Forsberg Bundesliga · 2020 | 29 | €22.5M | €11.0M | fell |
| Roberto Gagliardini Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €15.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2021 | PSV | Inter | €14.3M | €16.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Heerenveen | PSV | €5.5M | €4.0M |
| 25 Jul 2017 | Sparta R. | Heerenveen | €750k | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sparta U21 | Sparta R. | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Barendrecht U19 | Sparta U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Barendrecht Yth | Barendrecht U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Spartaan Yth. | Barendrecht Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Smitshoek U19 | Spartaan Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.