Matej Kovar

26 yrs · Goalkeeper · Czech Republic
PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie · Foot: right · Height: 196 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€8.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€4.5M – €11.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.1M – €12.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€4.9M – €17.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€8.7M – €8.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€4.5M – €11.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.1M – €12.7M
Projected value (24 months)€4.9M – €17.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Matej Kovar's performance-implied value at EUR 3.1M-12.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.5M-11.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.9M-17.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 73

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average74.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.1 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €7.7M vs market €8.0M
Expected appreciationHigh+19% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €8.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2790 (91% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
75 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1606
Opponent strength
1294
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€4.9M – €17.5M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 76 pts; changed club; team strength down (-75 Elo); league level down (-205 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +2% (IQR -26% to +154%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
217 (all positions)
Relative output kept
70%–152%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26PSV EindhovenEredivisieGK31279091%000.000.00129416060.43
2024/25Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaGK545015%000.000.00150516810.94
2023/24Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaGK1903%000.000.00146917871.01

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeaguePSV Eindhoven8720001664
2025/26Knvb BekerPSV Eindhoven436000—
2025/26World CupCzech Republic327000—
2025/26Johan Cruijff SchaalPSV Eindhoven190001297
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen6540001648
2024/25Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen439000—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen121080001546
2023/24Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen436000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Yvon Mvogo
Eredivisie · 2021
27€4.5M€3.5Mfell
Jasper Cillessen
Eredivisie · 2014
25€5.0M€12.0Mrose
Denys Boyko
Premier Liga · 2014
26€4.0M€2.5Mfell
Matheus
Liga Portugal · 2018
26€3.0M€2.8Mflat
Ederson
Liga Portugal · 2017
24€22.0M€70.0Mrose
Lovre Kalinic
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
28€6.5M€2.8Mfell
Vasilios Barkas
Super League 1 · 2019
25€2.5M€2.8Mflat
José Sá
Super League 1 · 2019
26€2.5M€7.5Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026LeverkusenPSV€5.0M€8.0M
30 Jun 2026PSVLeverkusenFree / loan€8.0M
15 Jul 2025LeverkusenPSVFree / loan€5.0M
15 Aug 2023Man UtdLeverkusen€5.0M€1.8M
30 Jun 2023Sparta PragueMan UtdFree / loan€1.8M
8 Sept 2022Man UtdSparta PragueFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2022Man Utd U21Man UtdUnknown€400k
31 May 2022Burton AlbionMan Utd U23Free / loan€250k
31 Jan 2022Man Utd U23Burton AlbionFree / loan€250k
6 Jan 2021Swindon TownMan Utd U23Free / loan€250k
28 Aug 2020Man Utd U23Swindon TownFree / loan€250k
1 Jul 2018Man Utd U18Man Utd U23Unknown€50k
31 Jan 2018Slovacko U19Man Utd U18Unknown€50k
1 Jul 2017Slovacko U17Slovacko U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Slovacko Yth.Slovacko U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.