Gabriel Sara
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gabriel Sara's performance-implied value at EUR 2.7M-13.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.4M-30.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.1M-26.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.84x the positional average in the league (1840 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 11
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €25.0M vs market €27.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1840 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1501
- Opponent strength
- 1247
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.1M – €26.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -37% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CM | 27 | 1840 | 60% | 5 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.18 | 1247 | 1501 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CM | 31 | 2306 | 71% | 2 | 9 | 0.43 | 0.19 | 1284 | 1557 | 0.39 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 12 | 737 | 1 | 1 | 1638 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Galatasaray | 9 | 781 | 0 | 1 | 1487 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 2 | 153 | 0 | 0 | 1524 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudinho Premier Liga · 2022 | 25 | €18.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Adrien Silva Liga Portugal · 2017 | 28 | €25.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Konstantinos Fortounis Super League 1 · 2017 | 25 | €9.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Mady Camara Super League 1 · 2021 | 24 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Calvin Stengs Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €15.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Wendel Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €24.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Quincy Promes Eredivisie · 2021 | 29 | €15.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Artem Bondarenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €9.0M | €8.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2024 | Norwich | Galatasaray | €18.0M | €18.0M |
| 15 Jul 2022 | São Paulo | Norwich | €10.5M | €6.5M |
| 24 Jun 2019 | São Paulo U20 | São Paulo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | São Paulo U17 | São Paulo U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.