Kacper Kozlowski
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kacper Kozlowski's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-12.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (2653 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 100
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 27.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.7M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 16% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2653 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1167
- Opponent strength
- 1269
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 16%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.2M – €12.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 21 pts; role change AM -> RW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +7% (IQR -24% to +48%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | RW | 31 | 2653 | 87% | 6 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 1269 | 1167 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | AM | 27 | 2128 | 66% | 4 | 5 | 0.38 | 0.43 | 1286 | 1198 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | AM | 30 | 2061 | 67% | 3 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.42 | 1349 | 1158 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | CM | 29 | 2104 | 69% | 2 | 5 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 1344 | 1342 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 6 | 197 | 6% | 0 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.18 | 1268 | 1499 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 3 | 258 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Pogon Szczecin | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1405 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlo Holse Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €3.2M | €7.0M | rose |
| Benjamin Tetteh Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €2.3M | €1.5M | fell |
| Andri Gudjohnsen Superliga · 2024 | 22 | €2.7M | €2.8M | flat |
| Makhtar Gueye Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Oliver Edvardsen Eredivisie · 2024 | 25 | €2.3M | €3.0M | rose |
| Georges Mikautadze Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €2.2M | €15.0M | rose |
| Cherif Ndiaye Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €2.0M | €2.2M | flat |
| Bojan Miovski Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2024 | Brighton | Gaziantep FK | €200k | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Vitesse | Brighton | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 25 Aug 2022 | Brighton | Vitesse | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Union SG | Brighton | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 6 Jan 2022 | Brighton | Union SG | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 5 Jan 2022 | Pogon Szczecin | Brighton | €11.0M | €10.0M |
| 9 May 2019 | Pogon II | Pogon Szczecin | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Pogon U19 | Pogon II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Pogon Youth | Pogon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.