Mika Biereth
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mika Biereth's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-11.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.7M-18.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.9M-22.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.62x the positional average in the league (1063 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 59.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.0M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1063 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1527
- Opponent strength
- 1428
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.9M – €22.5M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 49% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +14% (IQR -39% to +145%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1063 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | ST | 32 | 1063 | 35% | 2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.31 | 1428 | 1527 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | ST | 16 | 1239 | 40% | 13 | 2 | 1.09 | 0.63 | 1441 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 14 | 1023 | 34% | 6 | 5 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 1235 | 1179 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | ST | 12 | 299 | 10% | 2 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.52 | 1261 | 1258 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 8 | 123 | 0 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sportklub Puntigamer Sturm Graz | 6 | 475 | 2 | 0 | 1597 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 2 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1637 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | RKC Waalwijk | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cengiz Ünder Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €24.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Mattia Destro Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €13.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Abde Ezzalzouli Laliga · 2024 | 23 | €9.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Lautaro Martínez Serie A · 2019 | 22 | €30.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Martin Terrier Ligue 1 · 2020 | 23 | €10.5M | €25.0M | rose |
| Moise Kean Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €24.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Patrick Cutrone Serie A · 2019 | 21 | €28.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Christian Kouamé Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €8.5M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2025 | Sturm Graz | Monaco | €13.0M | €13.0M |
| 8 Jul 2024 | Arsenal U21 | Sturm Graz | €9.0M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Sturm Graz | Arsenal U21 | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 19 Jan 2024 | Arsenal U21 | Sturm Graz | Free / loan | €650k |
| 18 Jan 2024 | Motherwell FC | Arsenal U21 | Free / loan | €650k |
| 3 Aug 2023 | Arsenal U21 | Motherwell FC | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | RKC Waalwijk | Arsenal U21 | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Arsenal U21 | RKC Waalwijk | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jul 2021 | Fulham U18 | Arsenal U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Fulham Youth | Fulham U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.