Shunsuke Mito
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Shunsuke Mito's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-4.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (1873 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.8M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1873 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.58
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1298
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €959k – €4.0M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-87 Elo); role change LW -> LM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +37% (IQR -29% to +75%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LM | 25 | 1873 | 61% | 7 | 5 | 0.58 | 0.24 | 1298 | 1213 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LW | 30 | 1489 | 49% | 5 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 1317 | 1300 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 18 | 1024 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 1339 | 1327 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 134 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dal Varesanovic Super Lig · 2024 | 23 | €2.4M | €1.2M | fell |
| Luuk Brouwers Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Yusuf Özdemir Super Lig · 2023 | 22 | €1.6M | €2.6M | rose |
| Mads Frøkjær Superliga · 2023 | 24 | €800k | €3.5M | rose |
| Abdelkahar Kadri Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Kartal Yılmaz Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €1.2M | €2.6M | rose |
| Armin Gigovic Superliga · 2023 | 21 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Farouk Miya Super Lig · 2020 | 23 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2024 | Albirex Niigata | Sparta R. | €350k | €650k |
| 1 Feb 2021 | JFA Academy U18 | Albirex Niigata | Free / loan | €25k |
| 31 Jan 2021 | Albirex Niigata | JFA Academy U18 | Free / loan | €25k |
| 11 Sept 2020 | JFA Academy U18 | Albirex Niigata | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.