Vladyslav Baboglo

27 yrs · Centre-back · Moldova
Karpaty Lviv · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 188 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€282k – €745k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€620k – €1.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€384k – €1.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€125k – €1.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€282k – €745k
Model value (performance-implied)€620k – €1.4M
Projected value (24 months)€384k – €1.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Vladyslav Baboglo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 86

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage36.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.6 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €376k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationLow-26% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2262 (84% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.24
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.17
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
36 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1213
Opponent strength
1191
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€384k – €1.0M

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 64% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +13% (IQR -24% to +258%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Karpaty LvivPremier LigaCB26226284%420.240.17119112130.25
2024/25Karpaty LvivPremier LigaCB28248692%300.110.10121411850.28
2023/24FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaCB545017%010.200.12130512180.34
2022/23FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaCB27238588%030.110.08129212840.38
2021/22FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaCB16138585%210.190.16131212970.45
2020/21FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaCB21140560%110.130.11129412850.49
2019/20FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaCB1399850%200.180.14132513560.54
2018/19FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaCB327014%100.330.12133913840.57
2017/18FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaCB2915%000.000.06121913180.62

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupKarpaty Lviv19000—
2024/25Ukrainian CupKarpaty Lviv213501—
2021/22Ukrainian CupFC Oleksandriya16100—
2020/21Ukrainian CupFC Oleksandriya325601—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueFC Oleksandriya3181001551
2019/20Ukrainian CupFC Oleksandriya112000—
2018/19Ukrainian CupFC Oleksandriya19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Abdülkerim Bardakcı
Super Lig · 2021
27€1.7M€6.5Mrose
Stelios Kitsiou
Super Lig · 2021
28€800k€900kflat
Dimitrios Goutas
Super League 1 · 2021
27€700k€2.7Mrose
Denys Miroshnichenko
Premier Liga · 2023
29€700k€800kflat
Derek Cornelius
Super League 1 · 2022
25€800k€2.8Mrose
Tymur Stetskov
Premier Liga · 2024
26€1.0M€300kfell
Franco Ferrari
Super League 1 · 2022
30€600k€500kflat
Vasyl Kravets
Premier Liga · 2023
26€1.2M€700kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Aug 2023FC OleksandriyaKarpaty Lviv€585k€700k
1 Jan 2018Oleksandriya IIFC OleksandriyaUnknownData unavailable
13 Jul 2017Chornomor. U19Oleksandriya IIFree / loanData unavailable
25 Feb 2015C. Odessa U17Chornomor. U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.