Ilay Camara
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ilay Camara's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-4.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.1M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1009 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1378
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €4.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 42 pts; changed club; team strength up (+76 Elo); role change LM -> RB; relative output down 23% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -62% (IQR -70% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1009 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 19 | 1009 | 37% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 1378 | 1393 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | LM | 26 | 2140 | 79% | 0 | 5 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 1385 | 1317 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | RWD Molenbeek | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 22 | 1605 | 59% | 3 | 5 | 0.45 | 0.32 | 1378 | 1214 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | RSC Anderlecht | 6 | 298 | 1 | 0 | 1454 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 1 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1337 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitriy Skopintsev Premier Liga · 2020 | 23 | €3.2M | €4.5M | rose |
| Thomas Foket Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 24 | €3.5M | €4.8M | rose |
| Bubacarr Sanneh Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 25 | €3.5M | €700k | fell |
| Laurens De Bock Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Joãozinho Liga Portugal · 2014 | 25 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Selim Ay Super Lig · 2015 | 24 | €3.0M | €900k | fell |
| Rafa Soares Liga Portugal · 2020 | 25 | €2.4M | €2.0M | flat |
| Bram Nuytinck Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €3.0M | €1.3M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2025 | Standard Liège | RSC Anderlecht | €4.5M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | RWDM Brussels | Standard Liège | €1.8M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Standard Liège | RWDM | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 13 Aug 2024 | RWDM | Standard Liège | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 6 Sept 2023 | RSCA Futures | RWDM | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Anderlecht U18 | Anderlecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | OH Leuven Yth. | Anderlecht U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.