Fabio Miretti
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fabio Miretti's performance-implied value at EUR 5.3M-22.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.4M-21.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.2M-25.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.97x the positional average in the league (605 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 67.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.0M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 14% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 605 (18% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.45
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1614
- Opponent strength
- 1465
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 14%
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.2M – €25.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 32 pts; changed club; team strength up (+170 Elo); role change LM -> CM; relative output down 35% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -29% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 605 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CM | 23 | 605 | 18% | 1 | 2 | 0.45 | 0.21 | 1465 | 1614 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | LM | 25 | 1695 | 50% | 3 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 1489 | 1444 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CM | 25 | 1105 | 32% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1448 | 1621 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CM | 27 | 1233 | 36% | 0 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 1422 | 1614 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 7 | 266 | 0 | 1 | 1528 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 3 | 166 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 5 | 212 | 0 | 0 | 1740 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Juventus FC | 4 | 196 | 0 | 0 | 1622 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 4 | 191 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raphaël Guerreiro Bundesliga · 2018 | 25 | €18.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Nadiem Amiri Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €17.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Ogenyi Onazi Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Marcos Antônio Serie A · 2023 | 23 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Dennis Geiger Bundesliga · 2021 | 23 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Emil Holm Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Jack Wilshere Premier League · 2015 | 23 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Andreas Pereira Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €8.0M | €18.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Genoa | Juventus | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Juventus | Genoa | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Juve Next Gen | Juventus | Unknown | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Juventus U19 | Juventus U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Juventus U17 | Juventus U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Juventus Youth | Juventus U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Cuneo Youth | Juventus Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.