Thiago Almada
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thiago Almada's performance-implied value at EUR 5.1M-17.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.5M-18.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.0M-23.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.55x the positional average in the league (1312 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €13.6M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1312 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1619
- Opponent strength
- 1455
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.0M – €23.9M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; role change AM -> LW; relative output down 48% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -22% to +82%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1312 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | LW | 27 | 1312 | 38% | 3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 1455 | 1619 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | AM | 16 | 949 | 31% | 1 | 5 | 0.57 | 0.42 | 1449 | 1571 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 204 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 172 | 0 | 0 | 1647 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Argentina | 3 | 149 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1747 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 4 | 261 | 1 | 0 | 1581 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl García Laliga · 2013 | 27 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Patrik Schick Serie A · 2019 | 23 | €15.0M | €23.0M | rose |
| Giacomo Raspadori Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €25.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Giovani Lo Celso Laliga · 2022 | 26 | €22.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Mattia Destro Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €13.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Emiliano Rigoni Premier Liga · 2018 | 25 | €7.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Joaquín Correa Laliga · 2018 | 24 | €10.0M | €30.5M | rose |
| Jesse Lingard Premier League · 2017 | 25 | €12.0M | €40.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2025 | Botafogo | Atlético | €21.0M | €25.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Lyon | Botafogo | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 15 Jan 2025 | Botafogo | Lyon | Free / loan | €27.0M |
| 10 Jul 2024 | Atlanta | Botafogo | €24.1M | €27.0M |
| 9 Feb 2022 | Vélez Sarsfield | Atlanta | €14.5M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Vélez U20 | Vélez Sarsfield | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.