Noah Naujoks
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Noah Naujoks's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-3.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.31x the positional average in the league (2335 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €719k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2335 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.53
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 28 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1319
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €813k – €3.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -28% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 31 | 2335 | 76% | 10 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 1319 | 1183 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 23 | 1046 | 34% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.34 | 1440 | 1142 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 10 | 392 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1283 | 1197 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 2 | 16 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1287 | 1639 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 2 | 78 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davy van den Berg Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Hamidou Traore Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Chandrel Massanga Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €1.3M | €800k | fell |
| Roberto Fernández Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Ali Crawford Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 26 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Anatoliy Nuriyev Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €900k | €600k | fell |
| Talles Brener Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Odysseus Velanas Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €750k | €550k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2023 | Feyenoord | Excelsior | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Feyenoord U21 | Feyenoord | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Feyenoord U19 | Feyenoord U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Feyenoord U17 | Feyenoord U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Feyenoord Youth | Feyenoord U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.