Bright Arrey-Mbi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bright Arrey-Mbi's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-9.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.7M-14.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.7M-16.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 45
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €9.9M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1829 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1533
- Opponent strength
- 1329
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.7M – €16.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -68% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CB | 23 | 1829 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1329 | 1533 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CB | 15 | 1134 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1275 | 1478 | 0.51 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 12 | 1010 | 0 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 3 | 209 | 0 | 0 | 1337 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1461 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 5 | 345 | 0 | 0 | 1540 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1758 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Leite Liga Portugal · 2022 | 23 | €7.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Stanley Nsoki Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Douglas Premier Liga · 2015 | 25 | €5.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Ferro Liga Portugal · 2020 | 23 | €14.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Pedro Franco Super Lig · 2015 | 24 | €4.5M | €750k | fell |
| Thomas Beelen Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Morato Liga Portugal · 2024 | 23 | €15.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Abakar Sylla Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 21 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2024 | Hannover 96 | Braga | €6.2M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Bayern Munich | Hannover 96 | €620k | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Hannover 96 | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Aug 2022 | Bayern Munich | Hannover 96 | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 29 Aug 2022 | 1.FC Köln | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Bayern Munich | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 30 Jan 2022 | FC Bayern II | Bayern Munich | Unknown | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | FC Bayern U19 | FC Bayern II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 4 Jul 2019 | Chelsea Youth | FC Bayern U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2014 | Norwich Yth. | Chelsea Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.