Arnaud Kalimuendo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arnaud Kalimuendo's performance-implied value at EUR 8.1M-17.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 19.2M-33.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.1M-28.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.85x the positional average in the league (1509 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €24.4M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1509 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1457
- Opponent strength
- 1482
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.1M – €28.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 41 pts; changed club; relative output down 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -52% to -0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1509 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | ST | 19 | 1421 | 46% | 6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 1482 | 1445 | 0.94 |
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | ST | 9 | 88 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 1652 | 1635 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 33 | 2591 | 85% | 17 | 4 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 1450 | 1450 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 30 | 2155 | 70% | 10 | 4 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 1474 | 1507 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 30 | 1863 | 54% | 7 | 5 | 0.58 | 0.43 | 1447 | 1562 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | ST | 32 | 2168 | 63% | 12 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.52 | 1431 | 1492 | 0.86 |
| 2021/22 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 2 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1330 | 1714 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | ST | 28 | 1218 | 36% | 7 | 5 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 1429 | 1371 | 0.75 |
| 2020/21 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 1 | 74 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1256 | 1727 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 259 | 2 | 0 | 1386 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 6 | 304 | 1 | 0 | 1579 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 6 | 346 | 0 | 0 | 1517 |
| 2022/23 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2021/22 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl de Tomás Laliga · 2020 | 26 | €16.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Gelson Martins Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €28.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Lukas Nmecha Bundesliga · 2022 | 24 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jonas Wind Bundesliga · 2023 | 24 | €14.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €17.5M | €10.0M | fell |
| Kevin Volland Bundesliga · 2017 | 25 | €17.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Jérémie Boga Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €20.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Maxi Gómez Laliga · 2022 | 26 | €12.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Frankfurt | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 7 Jan 2026 | Nott'm Forest | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Stade Rennais | Nott'm Forest | €30.0M | €22.0M |
| 11 Aug 2022 | PSG | Stade Rennais | €20.0M | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Lens | PSG | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | PSG | Lens | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Lens | PSG | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | PSG | Lens | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Paris SG U19 | PSG | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Paris SG U17 | Paris SG U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | PSG Youth | Paris SG U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.