Aaron Hickey
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aaron Hickey's performance-implied value at EUR 6.0M-19.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.6M-23.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.6M-20.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 79.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €17.9M vs market €16.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 686 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1612
- Opponent strength
- 1605
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.6M – €20.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -52% to -14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Small sample: 686 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Brentford FC | Premier League | LB | 21 | 686 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1605 | 1612 | 1.30 |
| 2023/24 | Brentford FC | Premier League | RB | 9 | 720 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1542 | 1500 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Brentford FC | Premier League | RB | 26 | 1931 | 56% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1550 | 1623 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | LM | 36 | 2834 | 83% | 5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.27 | 1484 | 1395 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | LB | 11 | 763 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1401 | 1380 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 22 | 1910 | 71% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1292 | 1231 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Scotland | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 2 | 117 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Rodon Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Japhet Tanganga Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €12.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Ben Johnson Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Eric Bailly Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €25.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Rúben Vinagre Premier League · 2020 | 21 | €9.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Rob Holding Premier League · 2020 | 25 | €9.5M | €10.0M | flat |
| Kyle Walker-Peters Premier League · 2020 | 23 | €8.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Axel Tuanzebe Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €7.0M | €2.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2022 | Bologna | Brentford | €14.3M | €18.0M |
| 24 Sept 2020 | Heart of Midl. | Bologna | €1.7M | €600k |
| 1 Aug 2019 | Hearts FC U18 | Heart of Midl. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Celtic U17 | Hearts FC U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Hearts Youth | Celtic U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.