Axel Tuanzebe

28 yrs · Centre-back (also DM, RB) · DR Congo
Burnley FC · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 188 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.7M – €7.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€4.3M – €8.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.9M – €3.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.5M – €6.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.7M – €7.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€4.3M – €8.4M
Projected value (24 months)€1.9M – €3.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Axel Tuanzebe's performance-implied value at EUR 4.3M-8.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-7.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-3.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 14

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average71.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.6 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €3.9M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-44% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €10.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1202 (35% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.11
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
71 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1343
Opponent strength
1617
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.9M – €3.9M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts; changed club; role change RB -> CB; relative output up 49% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -53% to -31%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1202 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Burnley FCPremier LeagueCB14120235%100.070.11161713431.30
2024/25Ipswich TownPremier LeagueRB22171750%010.050.13159013221.23
2021/22Aston VillaPremier LeagueCB950515%000.000.05157215201.17
2021/22SSC NapoliSerie ACB1100%000.000.05139916450.89
2020/21Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCB940312%000.000.03148517411.19
2019/20Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCB51875%000.000.05161617201.14
2017/18Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCB110%000.000.04150117471.15
2016/17Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueDM43059%000.000.06157516941.07

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Africa Cup Of NationsDemocratic Republic of the Congo330000—
2025/26World CupDemocratic Republic of the Congo327000—
2024/25Fa CupIpswich Town14600—
2022/23Fa CupStoke City17600—
2021/22Italy CupSSC Napoli112000—
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United5201001624
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United3139001547
2020/21Fa CupManchester United19000—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United3270001501
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United118001594
2016/17Fa CupManchester United12200—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Dimitrios Giannoulis
Premier League · 2022
27€5.0M€2.8Mfell
Junior Firpo
Premier League · 2023
27€10.0M€8.0Mfell
Christoph Zimmermann
Premier League · 2020
27€2.8M€1.0Mfell
Duje Caleta-Car
Premier League · 2023
27€11.0M€7.0Mfell
Sead Kolasinac
Bundesliga · 2021
28€6.5M€8.0Mrose
Kévin Rodrigues
Laliga · 2021
27€3.5M€2.3Mfell
Adam Masina
Premier League · 2022
28€3.0M€1.5Mfell
Marvin Zeegelaar
Premier League · 2018
28€3.0M€1.2Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025IpswichBurnleyFree / loan€5.0M
8 Sept 2023Without ClubIpswichUnknown€4.5M
1 Jul 2023Man UtdWithout ClubUnknown€4.5M
31 May 2023Stoke CityMan UtdFree / loan€6.0M
31 Jan 2023Man UtdStoke CityFree / loan€6.0M
30 Jun 2022NapoliMan UtdFree / loan€7.0M
7 Jan 2022Man UtdNapoliFree / loan€8.0M
6 Jan 2022Aston VillaMan UtdFree / loan€8.0M
8 Aug 2021Man UtdAston VillaFree / loan€8.0M
31 May 2019Aston VillaMan UtdFree / loan€5.0M
6 Aug 2018Man UtdAston VillaFree / loan€1.0M
31 May 2018Aston VillaMan UtdFree / loan€1.0M
25 Jan 2018Man UtdAston VillaFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jan 2017Man Utd U18Man UtdUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Man Utd YouthMan Utd U18UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.