Tiago Çukur

23 yrs · Striker · Türkiye
Fatih Karagümrük · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 196 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€600k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€264k – €861k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€256k – €579k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€331k – €1.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€605k – €315k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€264k – €861k
Model value (performance-implied)€256k – €579k
Projected value (24 months)€331k – €1.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€600k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Tiago Çukur's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (1535 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 70

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average2.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable23.6 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €545k vs market €600k
Expected appreciationNeutral+10% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €600k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1535 (50% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.29
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.45
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
3 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1169
Opponent strength
1287
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€331k – €1.1M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -51% to -17%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1535 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
53 (ATT)
Relative output kept
79%–133%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
58%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Fatih KaragümrükSuper LigST28153550%230.290.45128711690.40

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Bruce Anderson
Scottish Premiership · 2023
25€600k€500kflat
Kornelius Normann
Eredivisie · 2024
23€600k€600kflat
Julian Kristoffersen
Superliga · 2020
23€450k€200kfell
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş
Super Lig · 2021
24€1.0M€300kfell
Glenn Middleton
Scottish Premiership · 2023
23€450k€350kfell
Jay-Roy Grot
Superliga · 2022
24€600k€500kflat
Kostyantyn Bychek
Premier Liga · 2023
23€400k€300kfell
Jean-Baptiste Léo
Super League 1 · 2021
25€350k€175kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025Roda JCKaragümrükFree / loan€400k
15 Jul 2024FenerbahçeRoda JCUnknown€300k
30 Jun 2024ÜmraniyesporFenerbahçeFree / loan€300k
7 Feb 2024FenerbahçeÜmraniyesporFree / loan€350k
31 Jan 2024SK BeverenFenerbahçeFree / loan€350k
7 Jul 2023FenerbahçeSK BeverenFree / loan€300k
30 Jun 2023FCV Dender EHFenerbahçeFree / loan€300k
29 Aug 2022FenerbahçeFCV Dender EHFree / loan€250k
13 Jul 2022Watford U21Fenerbahçe€250k€250k
11 Jan 2022DoncasterWatford U23Free / loanData unavailable
19 Jul 2021Watford U23DoncasterFree / loanData unavailable
14 Jan 2021Without ClubWatford U23UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2020AZ U19Without ClubUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2019AZ U17AZ U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018AZ Alkmaar Yth.AZ U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Feyenoord YouthAZ Alkmaar Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Zeeburgia Yth.Feyenoord YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.