Pep Chavarría
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pep Chavarría's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-8.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.7M-11.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.0M-10.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €8.4M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2681 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1494
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.0M – €10.4M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+78 Elo); relative output up 41% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -52% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | LB | 33 | 2681 | 78% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 1494 | 1518 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | LB | 34 | 2583 | 76% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 1523 | 1440 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | LB | 21 | 1156 | 34% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 1485 | 1401 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | LB | 16 | 356 | 10% | 0 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.32 | 1545 | 1398 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 118 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 375 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 215 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Debuchy Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €11.5M | €13.0M | flat |
| Aleksey Kozlov Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Andrea Ranocchia Serie A · 2015 | 27 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Alexander Djiku Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Federico Fernández Premier League · 2016 | 27 | €9.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Mariano Ligue 1 · 2013 | 27 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Stefan Posch Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Amir Rrahmani Serie A · 2024 | 30 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2022 | Real Zaragoza | Rayo Vallecano | €1.8M | €800k |
| 19 Aug 2020 | UE Olot | Real Zaragoza | Free / loan | €250k |
| 9 Jul 2018 | UE Figueres | UE Olot | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | UE Figueres U19 | UE Figueres | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.