Tómas Bent Magnússon
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tómas Bent Magnússon's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (1264 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €582k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1264 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1332
- Opponent strength
- 1212
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €413k – €1.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -30% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1264 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 27 | 1264 | 43% | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 1212 | 1332 | 0.31 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Valur Reykjavík | 3 | 270 | 2 | 0 | 1171 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 1 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maksym Lunyov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Adrián Riera Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Emil Mustafayev Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Denys Pidgurskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Cammy Devlin Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Hrvoje Ilic Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Luka Milunovic Super League 1 · 2015 | 23 | €700k | €450k | fell |
| Kyrylo Dryshlyuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €500k | €600k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2025 | Valur | Heart of Midl. | Unknown | €50k |
| 5 Feb 2025 | ÍBV | Valur | Free / loan | €50k |
| 2 Feb 2023 | Friars | ÍBV | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Aug 2022 | ÍBV | Friars | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Jul 2022 | Framherjar | ÍBV | Free / loan | €50k |
| 9 Jul 2022 | ÍBV | Framherjar | Free / loan | €50k |
| 3 Jan 2020 | ÍBV U19 | ÍBV | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2019 | Framherjar | ÍBV U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 Mar 2019 | ÍBV U19 | Framherjar | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.