Toti
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Toti's performance-implied value at EUR 7.7M-18.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.0M-25.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.5M-15.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €18.5M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1427 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1425
- Opponent strength
- 1617
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.5M – €15.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 35 pts; team strength down (-77 Elo); relative output down 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -60% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1427 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 19 | 1427 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1617 | 1425 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 31 | 2615 | 76% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1557 | 1501 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 35 | 2776 | 81% | 1 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1580 | 1467 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 17 | 981 | 29% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1557 | 1497 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | CB | 4 | 360 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1531 | 1508 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Bednarek Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €14.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Moussa Niakhaté Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Christian Kabasele Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Daniel Amartey Premier League · 2023 | 29 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Bruno Martins Indi Premier League · 2018 | 26 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Matija Nastasić Bundesliga · 2020 | 27 | €13.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jack Stephens Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa Premier League · 2014 | 25 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2022 | Grasshoppers | Wolves | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 4 Sept 2020 | Wolves | Grasshoppers | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Sept 2020 | Estoril | Wolves | €789k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Estoril U23 | Estoril | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Estoril U19 | Estoril U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | GDS Cascais U19 | Estoril U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.