James Hill
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates James Hill's performance-implied value at EUR 10.9M-43.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.1M-35.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.9M-34.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €25.1M vs market €23.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2104 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1643
- Opponent strength
- 1628
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.9M – €34.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +21% (IQR -30% to +53%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 29 | 2104 | 62% | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1628 | 1643 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 10 | 449 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 1547 | 1582 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 5 | 75 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1751 | 1496 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 10 | 746 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1310 | 1250 | 0.40 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 243 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 3 | 261 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieran Tierney Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €32.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| James Justin Premier League · 2021 | 23 | €17.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Chris Richards Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Mason Holgate Premier League · 2020 | 24 | €13.5M | €18.0M | rose |
| Mouctar Diakhaby Laliga · 2019 | 23 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Sergio Reguilón Laliga · 2020 | 24 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Héctor Bellerín Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €25.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| João Cancelo Laliga · 2016 | 22 | €10.0M | €35.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2024 | Blackburn | Bournemouth | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Aug 2023 | Bournemouth | Blackburn | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Heart of Midl. | Bournemouth | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 9 Jan 2023 | Bournemouth | Heart of Midl. | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 5 Jan 2022 | Fleetwood | Bournemouth | €1.2M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Fleetwood U18 | Fleetwood | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.