Vasilios Zagaritis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vasilios Zagaritis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-4.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-4.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.4M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2816 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1284
- Opponent strength
- 1297
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €4.6M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+152 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -41% to +32%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | LB | 34 | 2816 | 92% | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1297 | 1284 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Almere City FC | Eredivisie | LB | 33 | 2960 | 97% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1308 | 1131 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | LB | 12 | 956 | 41% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1242 | 1362 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | LM | 2 | 64 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1440 | 1252 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | LB | 1 | 90 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1207 | 1365 | 0.46 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 3 | 222 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Almere City FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nihad Mujakic Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Mats Köhlert Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Karlo Bartolec Superliga · 2019 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Nick Viergever Eredivisie · 2013 | 24 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Miroslav Bogosavac Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.3M | flat |
| Pawel Bochniewicz Eredivisie · 2021 | 25 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Zan Zaletel Superliga · 2024 | 25 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Souffian El Karouani Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €2.4M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Almere City | Heerenveen | €500k | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Parma | Almere City | Free / loan | €400k |
| 22 Jan 2021 | Panathinaikos | Parma | €380k | €150k |
| 14 Jan 2019 | PAO U19 | Panathinaikos | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | PAO U17 | PAO U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Kitheronas | PAO U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.