Souffian El Karouani
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Souffian El Karouani's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-4.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.5M-19.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.4M-19.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 34
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €12.4M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2835 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 57 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1301
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.4M – €19.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -50% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | LB | 32 | 2835 | 93% | 2 | 11 | 0.41 | 0.24 | 1301 | 1352 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | LB | 34 | 2975 | 97% | 2 | 8 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 1304 | 1409 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | LB | 29 | 2452 | 80% | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1345 | 1354 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | LB | 33 | 2890 | 94% | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1356 | 1266 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | LB | 31 | 2571 | 84% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1361 | 1243 | 0.60 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Utrecht | 8 | 536 | 0 | 2 | 1508 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Utrecht | 6 | 490 | 1 | 4 | 1341 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 2 | 132 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 2 | 115 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 283 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Muñoz Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €8.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Samuel Gigot Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €11.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Christian Kabasele Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 25 | €6.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Yukinari Sugawara Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Milan van Ewijk Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Daryl Janmaat Eredivisie · 2013 | 24 | €5.0M | €7.5M | rose |
| Guram Kashia Eredivisie · 2013 | 26 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Florent Hadergjonaj Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Utrecht | Al-Qadsiah | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | NEC Nijmegen | Utrecht | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | NEC U19 | NEC Nijmegen | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Elinkwijk Yth. | NEC U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.