Ander Barrenetxea
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ander Barrenetxea's performance-implied value at EUR 4.9M-20.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.2M-23.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.4M-22.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (1769 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.9M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1769 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1462
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.4M – €22.9M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -47% to +23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1769 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 30 | 1769 | 52% | 3 | 5 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 1492 | 1462 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 30 | 1258 | 37% | 1 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 1514 | 1464 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 29 | 1437 | 42% | 4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 1517 | 1588 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 23 | 872 | 25% | 3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 1512 | 1604 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 11 | 548 | 16% | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 1527 | 1559 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 31 | 1300 | 38% | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.32 | 1589 | 1573 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 17 | 433 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1567 | 1567 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 6 | 265 | 8% | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.57 | 1617 | 1536 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | LW | 1 | 74 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 1550 | 1559 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | LW | 1 | 58 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 1518 | 1495 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LW | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1519 | 1873 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 4 | 227 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 10 | 488 | 3 | 1 | 1515 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 7 | 377 | 4 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Real Sociedad | 7 | 400 | 1 | 1 | 1706 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 3 | 222 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1624 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 4 | 109 | 0 | 1 | 1491 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 2 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 6 | 109 | 0 | 0 | 1672 |
| 2020/21 | Supercopa | Real Sociedad | 1 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1781 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 7 | 382 | 3 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Muriel Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €10.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Antonio Sanabria Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €7.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Gianluca Scamacca Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €30.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Cyril Ngonge Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Paul-Georges Ntep Ligue 1 · 2017 | 25 | €8.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Breel Embolo Bundesliga · 2019 | 22 | €14.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Martin Terrier Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €20.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Ante Rebić Bundesliga · 2018 | 25 | €10.0M | €24.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2019 | Real Sociedad B | Real Sociedad | Unknown | €10.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | R. Sociedad U19 | Real Sociedad B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Real Sociedad Y | R. Sociedad U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.