Çağtay Kurukalıp
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Çağtay Kurukalıp's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 98
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €227k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1271 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1169
- Opponent strength
- 1291
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €358k – €836k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -40% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1271 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fatih Karagümrük | Super Lig | LB | 25 | 1271 | 42% | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 1291 | 1169 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | LB | 2 | 91 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1253 | 1422 | 0.42 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vahid Selimovic Super League 1 · 2021 | 24 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Jerome Opoku Superliga · 2022 | 24 | €400k | €2.0M | rose |
| Stefanos Stroungis Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €450k | €400k | flat |
| Leroy Abanda Super League 1 · 2024 | 24 | €700k | €450k | fell |
| Luís Rocha Super League 1 · 2018 | 25 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Ramazan Civelek Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €800k | €850k | flat |
| Pedro Amaral Super League 1 · 2019 | 22 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Ruben Roosken Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €450k | €700k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2024 | Fenerbahçe | Karagümrük | Unknown | €175k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Iskenderunspor | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €175k |
| 11 Aug 2023 | Fenerbahçe | Iskenderunspor | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Igdir FK | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €100k |
| 12 Jan 2023 | Fenerbahçe | Igdir FK | Free / loan | €200k |
| 5 Aug 2021 | Kasimpasa | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 Oct 2018 | Kasimpasa U21 | Kasimpasa | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Kasimpasa Yth | Kasimpasa U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.