Dejan Popara
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dejan Popara's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.41x the positional average in the league (1987 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 77
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 17.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €706k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1987 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 17 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1192
- Opponent strength
- 1181
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €455k – €1.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 32 pts; relative output up 66% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +26% (IQR -38% to +111%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | DM | 26 | 1987 | 74% | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 1181 | 1192 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | DM | 13 | 1125 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 1194 | 1182 | 0.28 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denys Kuzyk Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Amir Hadziahmetovic Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €2.2M | €7.5M | rose |
| Josh Campbell Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 23 | €750k | €1.2M | rose |
| Yan Dhanda Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Connor Barron Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €1.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Artem Chelyadin Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Daniel Phillips Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €225k | €225k | flat |
| Jens Jakob Thomasen Superliga · 2021 | 25 | €700k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2025 | Sloga Meridian | Zorya Lugansk | €180k | €300k |
| 18 Jan 2024 | B. Banja Luka | Sloga Meridian | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Dec 2023 | Sloga Meridian | B. Banja Luka | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | B. Banja Luka | Sloga Meridian | Free / loan | €150k |
| 24 Feb 2022 | Zvijezda 09 | B. Banja Luka | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Zvijezda 09 U19 | Zvijezda 09 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Zvijezda 09 U17 | Zvijezda 09 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.